Debunking the Arms Industry Myth

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    • The Pale Rider wrote:

      Opulon wrote:

      Good analysis (interesting math done), but i would like to debunk the myth that there was a myth to debunk about arms industries.

      However, contrarly to what the math tends to point, i've not managed yet to win a game without building arms industries, for the sole reason it's often a requirement to build units :D
      You are the First Winner of not reading Assumptions:
      Assumptions: (Guarantee at least 2 responses will ignore these in their counter arguments)

      1. Base 5 City Country ( 1 city per Resource) based on BGUSA map
      2. Build arms in all cities each level ( yes someone will say well I only need X... yada .. yada)
      3. Does not factor in morale; pop growth etc.
      4. Does not factor in added occupied cities.
      5. Does not factor in buying / Selling on the Market
      6. Assume everyone will build Level 1 (Need for advanced units)
      Don't take it too seriously.

      Once i said "good analysis (interesting math done)", everything after was for the sake of joking around, especially about your 6th assumption point, which was very funny in my opinion, because in a deranged mind, i can totally imagine someone trying to win a map without doing arms industry :D
      Running an online alliance is pretty much like running a small company, except you need to find other way than money to keep your employees productive. May they play or work, they are humans.
    • Opulon wrote:

      Don't take it too seriously.
      Once i said "good analysis (interesting math done)", everything after was for the sake of joking around, especially about your 6th assumption point, which was very funny in my opinion, because in a deranged mind, i can totally imagine someone trying to win a map without doing arms industry :D
      Awww - Now I feel weird.

      In my first few (public) games I didn't build any Arms Industries. I was successful.

      Apparently I was also part of a deranged Opulon fantasy.

      I think Opulon gave us(me) too much information. ;)
    • KFGauss wrote:

      Opulon wrote:

      Don't take it too seriously.
      Once i said "good analysis (interesting math done)", everything after was for the sake of joking around, especially about your 6th assumption point, which was very funny in my opinion, because in a deranged mind, i can totally imagine someone trying to win a map without doing arms industry :D
      Awww - Now I feel weird.
      In my first few (public) games I didn't build any Arms Industries. I was successful.

      Apparently I was also part of a deranged Opulon fantasy.

      I think Opulon gave us(me) too much information. ;)
      "Fantasy" sounds too positive to include you. How about Horrific Nightmare? :)
      *** The Creator of Zombie Farming ***
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    • WalterChang wrote:

      KFGauss wrote:

      You are right about the "Rares" cost of an Arm Industry.
      It is also important to notice and weigh/evaluate the other costs too.

      I'm not saying that your approach is right or wrong. I am saying that building an Arm Industry affects more than just your supply of Rares.
      I'm not saying my approach is right or wrong, either, really! I put the idea out more as a way of questioning my own approach, because I've never done any detailed maths.

      What I think it boils down to is: how do you get as much research done as possible in the early game, before you've got enough Rare Material production to be able to do it continuously on both slots?

      The reason I discount the other costs of building Arms Industry upgrades is because those things aren't preventing me from doing research - lack of RM is.

      My theory is that you can catch up with unit numbers later, once your resource production improves (and yes, that comes mostly from capturing new territory rather than from building industry). But you can't catch up with lost time on research - unless you use gold.

      I think that upgrading the Rare Material city's Arms Industry building will allow you to keep up with research more time-efficiently in the early game - on top of territorial expansion, which is also vital for improving resource production. I don't think that upgrading one of the Arms Industry buildings makes much of a dent in your capacity to expand your territory. Maybe a little one, but I reckon it's probably worth it.

      I think the margins are quite fine, though. It may not even be that important a factor!
      Here you go Walter.

      Just started Rising Tides (which sucks on starting rare at whopping 32 per hr/777 per day and no easy resources available via AI countries). But just bought 2200 rare off mkt as soon as joined game; so thats 3 days worth of rare right there (thats how I dont need gold and can keep researches going). But yes built Arms 1 in Rare; elec; supp; comp cities ;) as need ships as Indo ASAP. But building those 4 arms ind cost me 900 rare and will actually be the cause of delay 1 of my researches day 2.

      Already have my day 1 researches done and just waiting on day 2 to unlock. (Frigs and EAA) .

      rare.jpg
      "And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him "

      aka ...The killer formerly known as BuckeyeChamp
    • The Pale Rider wrote:

      Better use is Local Ind in a rare or elec prov (only costs supp and Comp).
      Why yes, of course it is a better investment to build LocInd (Lvl1) than ArmI.
      This, however, does not answer the question whether the latter is a good investment, on its own.
      Often you do not have a province for the resource you need. And even if you do, the question remains whether the additional yield from the city is worth the extra price of the additional ArmI. Also consider that 10% extra from a home city counts for roughly 200/day, while a province only gives about 100.

      Contrary to the original poster, I suggest that a 10(ish) day ROI is not something to be dismissed.
      Commander Zozo001 :thumbsup:
      humble player
    • The Pale Rider wrote:

      Here you go Walter.

      Just started Rising Tides (which sucks on starting rare at whopping 32 per hr/777 per day and no easy resources available via AI countries). But just bought 2200 rare off mkt as soon as joined game; so thats 3 days worth of rare right there (thats how I dont need gold and can keep researches going). But yes built Arms 1 in Rare; elec; supp; comp cities as need ships as Indo ASAP. But building those 4 arms ind cost me 900 rare and will actually be the cause of delay 1 of my researches day 2.

      Already have my day 1 researches done and just waiting on day 2 to unlock. (Frigs and EAA) .
      Yeah, I can see what you mean. If your base production is that low, gaining an extra 10% is not going to be worth the outlay. But if 777 is what you get at 70% morale (Day 1), does that mean it'll be 1110 per day at 100% morale? At that point, does it maybe become more worthwhile to upgrade? And on WW3 maps you tend to get a decent amount more than that to start with anyway, so that might change things.

      There are other reasons to go beyond L1 Industry in your most important cities - sabotage being the most obvious one - but I agree that the resource boost they give is pretty miserly. I would never prioritize industry upgrades at the expense of leaving a research slot unused, I don't think.

      The post was edited 1 time, last by WalterChang ().

    • But if 777 is what you get at 70% morale (Day 1), does that mean it'll be 1110 per day at 100% morale? At that point, does it maybe become more worthwhile to upgrade?


      Day 2 - Im up to 993 per day with lvl1 Arms which need for ship; navy 2 (gives 5 pct bump; which people dont realize if navy 3 plus arms same as arms 2).

      Now building a bunker (which will increase morale; which increases growth rate and both raise RSS production) and doesnt cost rare or elec. Bunkers are underrated on effect on cities.

      But even my coal partners have relative low Rare (they got lucky as in their capitols) mine was in my smallest city but population growing at a faster rate s catching up. Have a lot of Comp and Supp so working the market best i can before it dries up (usually by day 7).
      "And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him "

      aka ...The killer formerly known as BuckeyeChamp

      The post was edited 1 time, last by The Pale Rider ().

    • The Pale Rider wrote:

      Its "common" knowledge that most think need advanced level Arms to have high Economies. But on each level takes 11 - 12 days to recoup costs (opportunity cost wasted on building actual bases and/or mob troops; researches).

      So If build level 5 arms in all cities it would take 57 days to recoup the total costs, plus the 4 days to build beyond lvl1; will not see net benefit for 61 Days.
      And this is where you are wrong. The upgrades recoup (new word to me btw) their cost at the same time if you build them at the same time.


      Let me elaborate:

      First of all all upgrades increase the productio by 0,1 of the base production (production without any arms industry).

      So if I build them to lvl 1 I increase production to by 0,1 which means I recoup (I'm starting to like this word) the building costs in about 10 days.

      If I were to build a lvl 2 arms industry I increase production by 0,2. Since the building cost of the lvl2 upgrade is a bit more expensive then the one to lvl 1, my costs are bit more expensive, so I have a bit more than twice the costs and I have twice the increase, so this will maybe recoup in 12 days.


      But this assumed lvl 1 takes 10 days to recoup, but is that true?

      For his calculations I will assume that we have five homeland cities and in each of them build arms industry to lvl 1 (we do this in each city sincearms industry uses every resource, this makes the diffeent resources more comparable). Sure, lvl 1 is something you almost always build, but the costs are not that much bigger so if you want to you can just estimate them.

      So let's just take playbabes numbers for the production. 1701 supplies per day




      resource typeproductiom/day without arms industry
      production gain
      cost per arms industrycost for 5 arms industriesamount of days to recoup
      supplies17011701 * 0,1 = 170,1
      400400 * 5 = 2000
      2000 / 170,1 = 11,76
      components14581458* 0,1 = 145,8
      350350 * 5 = 17501750 / 145,8 = 12
      fuel
      17011701* 0,1 = 170,1
      350350 * 5 = 17501750 / 170,1 = 10,29
      electronics12151215* 0,1 = 121,5250250 * 5 = 12501250 / 121,5 = 10,29
      rare materials
      972972* 0,1 = 97,2225225 * 5 = 12251225 / 97,2 = 12,6

      the final result is rounded to 2 decimal places

      Yes, 10 to 12 days is a good estimate for lvl1 arms industry. Though you have to take into account that I haven't taken the increasing morale into account.




      Let's now do it for lvl5 arms industry.

      resource typeproduction/day without arms industry
      production gain
      cost per arms industrycost for 5 arms industriesamount of days to recoup
      supplies17011701 * 0,1 = 170,1
      400550 * 5 = 2750
      2750 / 170,1 = 16,17
      components14581458* 0,1 = 145,8
      350550 * 5 = 27502750 / 145,8 = 18,86
      fuel
      17011701* 0,1 = 170,1
      350475 * 5 = 23752375 / 170,1 = 13,96
      electronics12151215* 0,1 = 121,5250375 * 5 = 18751875 / 121,5 = 15,43
      rare materials
      972972* 0,1 = 97,2225350 * 5 = 17501750 / 97,2 = 18



      So the lvl5 upgrade takes significantly longer then the lvl1 upgrade to recoup, though now morale is even higher, so they don't take that long to recoup as this calculation would suggest.


      In conclusion I'd say that you shouldn't rush your arms industry upgrades, since you still need to improve and expand your military. Especcially the later upgrades take longer to recoup, so you should always take into account the amount of time it takes until you start to benefit from the upgrades. So if the game is nearing an end, you should probably not upgrade your industry to lvl5 anymore.
      And yes, conquest can also give you more production, but here you also have to take lost untis and so on into account and you can also conquer while upgrading your arms industry.
      a.k.a. jem and and eres
    • jemandanderes wrote:

      So let's just take playbabes numbers for the production. 1701 supplies per day

      jemandanderes wrote:

      The Pale Rider wrote:

      ...
      So If build level 5 arms in all cities it would take 57 days to recoup the total costs, plus the 4 days to build beyond lvl1; will not see net benefit for 61 Days.
      And this is where you are wrong. The upgrades recoup (new word to me btw) their cost at the same time if you build them at the same time....
      So let's just take playbabes numbers for the production. 1701 supplies per day




      resource typeproductiom/day without arms industryproduction gaincost per arms industrycost for 5 arms industriesamount of days to recoup
























      rare materials972972* 0,1 = 97,2225225 * 5 = 12251225 / 97,2 = 12,6

      Yes, 10 to 12 days is a good estimate for lvl1 arms industry. Though you have to take into account that I haven't taken the increasing morale into account.

      Let's now do it for lvl5 arms industry.

      resource typeproduction/day without arms industryproduction gaincost per arms industrycost for 5 arms industriesamount of days to recoup
























      rare materials972972* 0,1 = 97,2225350 * 5 = 17501750 / 97,2 = 18


      So the lvl5 upgrade takes significantly longer then the lvl1 upgrade to recoup, though now morale is even higher, so they don't take that long to recoup as this calculation would suggest.
      Yeah, still you kept the other erronous multiplier from playbabe, that is the *5 for building everywhere. One should rather consider a single resource, which is the most needed, for the ArmI upgrade in 1 city. Let's say it is the RM: then, Lvl1 cost is recouped in mere 2.3 days, and Lvl5 is in 3.6 days.
      Commander Zozo001 :thumbsup:
      humble player
    • Zozo001 wrote:

      jemandanderes wrote:

      So let's just take playbabes numbers for the production. 1701 supplies per day

      jemandanderes wrote:

      The Pale Rider wrote:

      ...
      So If build level 5 arms in all cities it would take 57 days to recoup the total costs, plus the 4 days to build beyond lvl1; will not see net benefit for 61 Days.
      And this is where you are wrong. The upgrades recoup (new word to me btw) their cost at the same time if you build them at the same time....So let's just take playbabes numbers for the production. 1701 supplies per day




      resource typeproductiom/day without arms industryproduction gaincost per arms industrycost for 5 arms industriesamount of days to recoup
      rare materials972972* 0,1 = 97,2225225 * 5 = 12251225 / 97,2 = 12,6

      Yes, 10 to 12 days is a good estimate for lvl1 arms industry. Though you have to take into account that I haven't taken the increasing morale into account.

      Let's now do it for lvl5 arms industry.

      resource typeproduction/day without arms industryproduction gaincost per arms industrycost for 5 arms industriesamount of days to recoup
      rare materials972972* 0,1 = 97,2225350 * 5 = 17501750 / 97,2 = 18


      So the lvl5 upgrade takes significantly longer then the lvl1 upgrade to recoup, though now morale is even higher, so they don't take that long to recoup as this calculation would suggest.
      Yeah, still you kept the other erronous multiplier from playbabe, that is the *5 for building everywhere. One should rather consider a single resource, which is the most needed, for the ArmI upgrade in 1 city. Let's say it is the RM: then, Lvl1 cost is recouped in mere 2.3 days, and Lvl5 is in 3.6 days.
      Well, the thing is that arms industry costs multiple different resources and we have to take all of them into account. Sure, if you have way more than enough of one resource then you can take that one out of the equation(like e.g. I usually have more then enough fuel in the late game). But most of the time you need every resource. In your calculation you didn't take the 4 other resources into consideration, even though you will still need those and be missing those in other parts of the game, so in comparison to others you will have units and buildings.
      Your calculation would only be realistic if you want to set a record for most rare material from just your homeland.
      a.k.a. jem and and eres
    • jemandanderes wrote:

      Well, the thing is that arms industry costs multiple different resources and we have to take all of them into account.

      Exactly because each building costs multiple resources, you'd not want extraneous ones built to boost production for stuff you do not need, while spending the very one(s) you do. That yields an unnecessarily inflated cost for the ArmI in question.

      My example is for a situation where one needs RM, so the question is whether is it worth boosting the RM producing city. The actual cost of that is 225 RM (at Lvl5).
      Your calculation adds 4 times as much expense, in order to boost the production of all 4 other resources, as well. How is that a more realistic accounting?

      Now your answer (as playbabe's) is to a convoluted question on how much it costs to boost 5 resources simultaneously. This being a rather rare scenario, it is very different from the issue whether ArmI is worth building, in general.
      Commander Zozo001 :thumbsup:
      humble player
    • Zozo001 wrote:

      jemandanderes wrote:

      Well, the thing is that arms industry costs multiple different resources and we have to take all of them into account.
      Exactly because each building costs multiple resources, you'd not want extraneous ones built to boost production for stuff you do not need, while spending the very one(s) you do. That yields an unnecessarily inflated cost for the ArmI in question.

      My example is for a situation where one needs RM, so the question is whether is it worth boosting the RM producing city. The actual cost of that is 225 RM (at Lvl5).
      Your calculation adds 4 times as much expense, in order to boost the production of all 4 other resources, as well. How is that a more realistic accounting?

      Now your answer (as playbabe's) is to a convoluted question on how much it costs to boost 5 resources simultaneously. This being a rather rare scenario, it is very different from the issue whether ArmI is worth building, in general.
      But the thing is that you will never be in a "situation where one needs RM" and nothing else. You will always need all other resources as well (except for maybe fuel). If you have more components, supplies and electronics, you can create more units, which means you can expand faster. If you don't have enough places to build more units, you can use components, supplies and electronics to build more mobilization buildings so you can make more units. Sure, if you value research more than more units, you might say these other resources aren't that valuable, but you are still losing out on something.
      a.k.a. jem and and eres
    • jemandanderes wrote:


      ... You will always need all other resources as well (except for maybe fuel).
      In actual practice, you have 1 limiting resource, and perhaps one (or rarely two) more in similarly tight supply.
      I found it nigh impossible to utilize all 5 at the same intensity simultaneously (and I have tried really hard).

      Ironically, in the context of this thread, a good way to get more even resource utilization is to boost the one(s) that has low production, by leveling up the necessary ArmI. (And also by conquering the appropriate cities wherever possible, but that is ofc not exclusive to the home cities buildup.)
      Commander Zozo001 :thumbsup:
      humble player
    • Zozo001 wrote:

      jemandanderes wrote:

      ... You will always need all other resources as well (except for maybe fuel).
      In actual practice, you have 1 limiting resource, and perhaps one (or rarely two) more in similarly tight supply.I found it nigh impossible to utilize all 5 at the same intensity simultaneously (and I have tried really hard).

      Ironically, in the context of this thread, a good way to get more even resource utilization is to boost the one(s) that has low production, by leveling up the necessary ArmI. (And also by conquering the appropriate cities wherever possible, but that is ofc not exclusive to the home cities buildup.)
      1. Adjust what you build / when. Low on supplies build Comp/Elec heavy units; High on Supp Reseach or build inf. (But in general Rare and Elec the most sparse).

      Even building ships if have frigs / destroyers rotate builds as Frigs higher Elec and Dest higher Comp.

      2. Use surplus RSS to sell on mkt and buy what you need.
      "And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him "

      aka ...The killer formerly known as BuckeyeChamp
    • The Pale Rider wrote:

      Zozo001 wrote:

      jemandanderes wrote:

      ... You will always need all other resources as well (except for maybe fuel).
      In actual practice, you have 1 limiting resource, and perhaps one (or rarely two) more in similarly tight supply.I found it nigh impossible to utilize all 5 at the same intensity simultaneously (and I have tried really hard).
      Ironically, in the context of this thread, a good way to get more even resource utilization is to boost the one(s) that has low production, by leveling up the necessary ArmI. (And also by conquering the appropriate cities wherever possible, but that is ofc not exclusive to the home cities buildup.)
      1. Adjust what you build / when. Low on supplies build Comp/Elec heavy units; High on Supp Reseach or build inf. (But in general Rare and Elec the most sparse).
      Even building ships if have frigs / destroyers rotate builds as Frigs higher Elec and Dest higher Comp.

      2. Use surplus RSS to sell on mkt and buy what you need.
      Am I alone in that the market rarely contains much?
      Overkill is an Awesome Map! :D
    • Bigtallnerd419 wrote:

      Am I alone in that the market rarely contains much?
      It is very limited, for sure, and you cannot count on it to get what you need (beyond the initial, bot provided amount). Furthermore, everyone gets offered roughly the same amount, so there's no advantage to be gained there.

      More importantly to me, really interesting play happens in challenges rather than public games. And there you'd not get anything from your opponents. Optimizing the resource production is even more crucial, however.
      Commander Zozo001 :thumbsup:
      humble player

      The post was edited 2 times, last by Zozo001 ().

    • Zozo001 wrote:

      jemandanderes wrote:

      ... You will always need all other resources as well (except for maybe fuel).
      In actual practice, you have 1 limiting resource, and perhaps one (or rarely two) more in similarly tight supply.I found it nigh impossible to utilize all 5 at the same intensity simultaneously (and I have tried really hard).

      Ironically, in the context of this thread, a good way to get more even resource utilization is to boost the one(s) that has low production, by leveling up the necessary ArmI. (And also by conquering the appropriate cities wherever possible, but that is ofc not exclusive to the home cities buildup.)
      No. No you don't. You can alway make more units. I don't know what your army composition is, mine consists of mostly MRL, SAM, ASF, mot. INF, NG, frigs and destroyers. MRL and SAM combined take a little more than twice the amount of Supplies than electronics. Destroyers and frigs combined take way more than twice the amount of components than electronics. ASF take nearly the same amount of components as electronics, but they aren't such a big part of my army. And then infantry takes no electronics, so if I have considerably more supplies and components left than electronics, I can just make more infantry. And I usually have not not a lot more than enough infantry, so if were to have way less supplies and components, I'd have no enough infantry anymore.
      I don't know how you are playing the game, but you don't seem to be really making effective use of your resources.
      a.k.a. jem and and eres