Debunking the Arms Industry Myth

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    • Debunking the Arms Industry Myth

      Its "common" knowledge that most think need advanced level Arms to have high Economies. But on each level takes 11 - 12 days to recoup costs (opportunity cost wasted on building actual bases and/or mob troops; researches).

      So If build level 5 arms in all cities it would take 57 days to recoup the total costs, plus the 4 days to build beyond lvl1; will not see net benefit for 61 Days.

      Assumptions: (Guarantee at least 2 responses will ignore these in their counter arguments)

      1. Base 5 City Country ( 1 city per Resource) based on BGUSA map
      2. Build arms in all cities each level ( yes someone will say well I only need X... yada .. yada)
      3. Does not factor in morale; pop growth etc.
      4. Does not factor in added occupied cities.
      5. Does not factor in buying / Selling on the Market
      6. Assume everyone will build Level 1 (Need for advanced units)

      So Unless your games last 60 - 80 days you are wasting resources. All those wasted resources before day 61 are costing you Units; other city builds; Mobilizations; researches that could actually help you win the game before Day 60.

      Factor in other buildings increase RSS production while providing other abilities makes Arms Ind even less helpful. Each Air and Navy levl increases RSS 5 pct instead of 10; Bunkers increase Morale which increases production; etc.

      Resource.jpg
      "And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him "

      aka ...The killer formerly known as BuckeyeChamp

      The post was edited 1 time, last by The Pale Rider ().

    • good analysis Pale Rider

      agree that conquest is best way to increase RSS production. A newly taken city (with very low morale) immediately gives about 200 RSS (about same return as building an AI on homeland city). As morale in captured city increases over next few days its production doubles to about 400 so that RSS by conquest becomes twice as beneficial as by building homeland AI.

      with the EAA air unit now totally dominating the battlefield, the use of sea and land units with good anti-air is vital and so Frigates and SAMs will be in demand. All three these units need Electronics that usually the least common RSS type. Pale Rider has covered how Naval and Air bases and Bunkers good ways to boost RSS production and some other ways that can help get those Electronics are:

      1. move your capital to whatever RSS most critical (your Electronic homeland city?). Morale in capital goes to 100% with this 20% inc above typical 80% homeland city lvl giving an equal 20% increase in that city RSS production

      2. build Local Industry on country province RSS. Even on captured land these country provinces still give 100% RSS just like your homeland and unlike captured city measly 25% that only go to 50% after the massive spend of annexation (seems like the peasants in the countryside dont care who is in charge whilst city folk get all surly after a regime change? still only half happy even when you spend a fortune on them for annexation!). For electronics building Local Industry especially valuabel because it only uses Supply and Components rather than any Electronics (unlike AI buildings) that you likely to be desperate for!
    • Alright so, Here a chart the include population and morale growth. (Commonly city start with pop5 and 70% morale)
      the chart include different line representing; example: total-3arm = at start if the game you build arms from lv1 to 3 and stop.
      note that the graph is not 100% correct but certainly more accurate then your.

      the X axis is Day, the Y axis is total resources multiplier. for better and simpler understanding, resources is represented by multiplier value.
      (the math behind it is complicate read more here: Link)

      Screenshot 2022-07-18 111006.png

      So then I math out the area to get resources production.
      These value is to be multiply by base production to get real resources production

      0 arm7.10613047
      1 arm7.79799352
      2 arm8.41815544
      3 arm8.91436989
      4 arm9.24895817
      5 arm9.37085976



      and here the base production value.
      Screenshot 2022-07-18 112728.png

      Example.
      for supply city only lv2 arms. start at day 0 to day 6 it will make 1701 x 8.418 = 14,319 resources.
      if you instead continue to lv5 arms it will make 1701 x 9.371 = 15,940 resources.

      Different by 1621 supply.

      Real question out of all this is
      How certain you are to get 1621 supply by capturing within 6 day if you stop building arms at lv2 rather then invest resources into lv5 arms
      This post was made by Leader of the Church of ROAD
    • Something that I forgot to include in my post above, and that Pale Buckeye tends to underemphasize. - My comments are almost universally about PUBLIC games - The opposition in those is generally pretty clueless (more clueless, than me at least). For that reason expansion in public games is easy, and outpacing other player's economies is pretty easy (especially in BGUSA & FP).

      One of these days I hope to write a little simulation that encodes the expertise of Playbabe and others, and that lets anyone who cares to play what-if games with Arms Industries, captured cities, morale, population, etc. effects. The purpose will be letting users develop an economic approach that best suits their playing style.
    • playbabe wrote:

      Alright so, Here a chart the include population and morale growth. (Commonly city start with pop5 and 70% morale)
      the chart include different line representing; example: total-3arm = at start if the game you build arms from lv1 to 3 and stop.
      note that the graph is not 100% correct but certainly more accurate then your.

      the X axis is Day, the Y axis is total resources multiplier. for better and simpler understanding, resources is represented by multiplier value.
      (the math behind it is complicate read more here: Link)

      Screenshot 2022-07-18 111006.png

      So then I math out the area to get resources production.
      These value is to be multiply by base production to get real resources production

      0 arm7.10613047
      1 arm7.79799352
      2 arm8.41815544
      3 arm8.91436989
      4 arm9.24895817
      5 arm9.37085976


      and here the base production value.
      Screenshot 2022-07-18 112728.png

      Example.
      for supply city only lv2 arms. start at day 0 to day 6 it will make 1701 x 8.418 = 14,319 resources.
      if you instead continue to lv5 arms it will make 1701 x 9.371 = 15,940 resources.

      Different by 1621 supply.

      Real question out of all this is
      How certain you are to get 1621 supply by capturing within 6 day if you stop building arms at lv2 rather then invest resources into lv5 arms
      I've seen before too, you really emphasize on the economy unlike many. Once I searched for opinions about annexing cities and if my memory serves me correctly, you shared an experienced how you made elite bombers while others thought you were using gold.

      Now I emphasize on buildings and economies too. I sometimes annex rare materials or electronics cities mid game if I think I'll need them in my plan after studying the enemy. So what are you exactly suggesting? We should make buildings to level 5 or 2 or 3 should be enough?
    • My suggestion and a lot of people would simply be

      Balancing between economy investment and making unit. Both expansions through military or sim city is valid but ideally you can do both at the same time. This can apply to any phase of the game.

      about annex tho just don’t do that in early game and you’ll be fine
      This post was made by Leader of the Church of ROAD
    • playbabe wrote:

      My suggestion and a lot of people would simply be

      Balancing between economy investment and making unit. Both expansions through military or sim city is valid but ideally you can do both at the same time. This can apply to any phase of the game.

      about annex tho just don’t do that in early game and you’ll be fine
      I simply do arms with what is left of my res at the end of the day; seems simple enough to me
      I am The Baseline for opinions
    • Good analysis (interesting math done), but i would like to debunk the myth that there was a myth to debunk about arms industries.

      However, contrarly to what the math tends to point, i've not managed yet to win a game without building arms industries, for the sole reason it's often a requirement to build units :D
      Running an online alliance is pretty much like running a small company, except you need to find other way than money to keep your employees productive. May they play or work, they are humans.
    • Opulon wrote:

      Good analysis (interesting math done), but i would like to debunk the myth that there was a myth to debunk about arms industries.

      However, contrarly to what the math tends to point, i've not managed yet to win a game without building arms industries, for the sole reason it's often a requirement to build units :D
      You are the First Winner of not reading Assumptions:

      Assumptions: (Guarantee at least 2 responses will ignore these in their counter arguments)

      1. Base 5 City Country ( 1 city per Resource) based on BGUSA map
      2. Build arms in all cities each level ( yes someone will say well I only need X... yada .. yada)
      3. Does not factor in morale; pop growth etc.
      4. Does not factor in added occupied cities.
      5. Does not factor in buying / Selling on the Market
      6. Assume everyone will build Level 1 (Need for advanced units)
      "And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him "

      aka ...The killer formerly known as BuckeyeChamp
    • My perception (without doing any meth) is that it is worth building industry in rare materials home regions early on, because lack of RM is the major blocker to research progress at that stage.

      With research, the major blocker over the course of a whole game is time. Unless you use gold, you can never recover the time you spend waiting for enough RM to start the next research.

      I reckon you want to prioritize getting as quickly as possible to the point where you can be doing 2 research projects at the same time, all of the time. And I think that building arms industry upgrades in the Rare Materials city does get you to that point quicker.

      Is that not the case?
    • WalterChang wrote:

      My perception (without doing any meth) is that it is worth building industry in rare materials home regions early on, because lack of RM is the major blocker to research progress at that stage.

      With research, the major blocker over the course of a whole game is time. Unless you use gold, you can never recover the time you spend waiting for enough RM to start the next research.

      I reckon you want to prioritize getting as quickly as possible to the point where you can be doing 2 research projects at the same time, all of the time. And I think that building arms industry upgrades in the Rare Materials city does get you to that point quicker.

      Is that not the case?
      Rare and Elec def best to build Arms Ind and quickest ROI. And like I said Im building Arms Ind 1; But building Arms Ind actually costs rare. Better use is Local Ind in a rare or elec prov (only costs supp and Comp).

      In regards to waiting on rare. I use all extra money to buy up all available rare / elec day 1 (I didnt include $$ wasted on Arms Ind but all that saved can buy RSS till mkt dries up around day 5 - 7); will sell fuel / supplies to get more $$ to buy rare or elec. I also only research a few types of units very deep vs a lot of types of units. So Research never an issue as it takes supp/rare. Im primarily building planes or Ships that are comp / elec.

      Building five level 2 Arms day 2 will cost YOU; 1375 rare (approx 1 low level Research) and will take you 11 days to get that back. So who is waiting on Rare? Not me Im spending on research day 2 while you spent it on Arms 2.

      Five level1 Arms costs $6,200; level 2 $10,000; level 3 15,000 ( when I stop at lvl 1 Im saving $25k first few days can buy what ever resource I want and basically monopolize market.)

      Its maintaining a balance. I dont have to wait to get Rare or any other RSS as havnt wasted it building beyond arms 1.

      Day 12 on BGUSA and have more RSS than can spend for past 4 days with only arms ind 1 and have everything I need researched.
      "And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him "

      aka ...The killer formerly known as BuckeyeChamp

      The post was edited 2 times, last by The Pale Rider ().

    • The Pale Rider wrote:

      [

      Building five level 2 Arms day 2 will cost YOU; 1375 rare (approx 1 low level Research) and will take you 11 days to get that back. So who is waiting on Rare? Not me Im spending on research day 2 while you spent it on Arms 2.

      Five level1 Arms costs $6,200; level 2 $10,000; level 3 15,000 ( when I stop at lvl 1 Im saving $25k first few days can buy what ever resource I want and basically monopolize market.)

      Its maintaining a balance. I dont have to wait to get Rare or any other RSS as havnt wasted it building beyond arms 1.

      Hang on, I was only talking about building 1 of the arms industries to level 2 (and beyond): the one in the Rare Materials city. That doesn't cost 1375 RM, it costs 275 - which is only about 5 hours' production time at that point, and you recoup the cost in, what, 2 days?

      I think the 5 hour wait to replace the build cost of the upgrade is probably worth it on day 1 or 2, given that by day 4 you're going to be producing more RM than you would have if you didn't build the upgrade.

      Building up 1 of your arms industries beyond L1 isn't going to have a massive detrimental effect on your ability to build enough units to capture land as you go, is it?
    • WalterChang wrote:

      The Pale Rider wrote:

      [

      Building five level 2 Arms day 2 will cost YOU; 1375 rare (approx 1 low level Research) and will take you 11 days to get that back. So who is waiting on Rare? Not me Im spending on research day 2 while you spent it on Arms 2.

      Five level1 Arms costs $6,200; level 2 $10,000; level 3 15,000 ( when I stop at lvl 1 Im saving $25k first few days can buy what ever resource I want and basically monopolize market.)

      Its maintaining a balance. I dont have to wait to get Rare or any other RSS as havnt wasted it building beyond arms 1.
      Hang on, I was only talking about building 1 of the arms industries to level 2 (and beyond): the one in the Rare Materials city. That doesn't cost 1375 RM, it costs 275 - which is only about 5 hours' production time at that point, and you recoup the cost in, what, 2 days?

      I think the 5 hour wait to replace the build cost of the upgrade is probably worth it on day 1 or 2, given that by day 4 you're going to be producing more RM than you would have if you didn't build the upgrade.

      Building up 1 of your arms industries beyond L1 isn't going to have a massive detrimental effect on your ability to build enough units to capture land as you go, is it?
      Day 12 I have 11 occupied Rare cities; think im concerned about 10 pct increase in 1 home city; my occupied cities are producing majority of resources ? Im taking the early conquest fueled by cost savings not over building cities...feeding the beast with spoils of war and always number 1 economy by day 9.

      Guess difference between England vs Vikings. England sat back building big cities and defenses and continued to get invaded by smaller more aggressive armies; Vikings dominated via conquest. Take a few dozen warriors in a small sail boat and go attack.

      Now a few hundred years of stronger economy ultimately won out; but Im winning games before that happens.

      (See Attachments to see # economy with very little spent on cities) And could document the same on any map I play. You dont need gold if you dont need it.
      Files
      • cities.jpg

        (598.52 kB, downloaded 25 times, last: )
      • econ.jpg

        (529.58 kB, downloaded 21 times, last: )
      "And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him "

      aka ...The killer formerly known as BuckeyeChamp
    • WalterChang wrote:

      Hang on, I was only talking about building 1 of the arms industries to level 2 (and beyond): the one in the Rare Materials city. That doesn't cost 1375 RM, it costs 275 - which is only about 5 hours' production time at that point, and you recoup the cost in, what, 2 days?

      I think the 5 hour wait to replace the build cost of the upgrade is probably worth it on day 1 or 2, given that by day 4 you're going to be producing more RM than you would have if you didn't build the upgrade.

      Building up 1 of your arms industries beyond L1 isn't going to have a massive detrimental effect on your ability to build enough units to capture land as you go, is it?
      You are right about the "Rares" cost of an Arm Industry.

      It is also important to notice and weigh/evaluate the other costs too.

      I'm not saying that your approach is right or wrong. I am saying that building an Arm Industry affects more than just your supply of Rares.
    • KFGauss wrote:

      You are right about the "Rares" cost of an Arm Industry.
      It is also important to notice and weigh/evaluate the other costs too.

      I'm not saying that your approach is right or wrong. I am saying that building an Arm Industry affects more than just your supply of Rares.

      I'm not saying my approach is right or wrong, either, really! I put the idea out more as a way of questioning my own approach, because I've never done any detailed maths.

      What I think it boils down to is: how do you get as much research done as possible in the early game, before you've got enough Rare Material production to be able to do it continuously on both slots?

      The reason I discount the other costs of building Arms Industry upgrades is because those things aren't preventing me from doing research - lack of RM is.

      My theory is that you can catch up with unit numbers later, once your resource production improves (and yes, that comes mostly from capturing new territory rather than from building industry). But you can't catch up with lost time on research - unless you use gold.

      I think that upgrading the Rare Material city's Arms Industry building will allow you to keep up with research more time-efficiently in the early game - on top of territorial expansion, which is also vital for improving resource production. I don't think that upgrading one of the Arms Industry buildings makes much of a dent in your capacity to expand your territory. Maybe a little one, but I reckon it's probably worth it.

      I think the margins are quite fine, though. It may not even be that important a factor!