Rogue State/Insurgents

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    • Sometimes they go on the move within a few hours of arriving. This happened once recently in a BG USA that has many cities revolting each game-day. However most days they all get killed before they start moving.

      My hunch is that the process that decides whether insurgents will expand isn't tied to the process that creates/spawns additional insurgents in a city .
    • KFGauss wrote:

      My hunch is that the process that decides whether insurgents will expand isn't tied to the process that creates/spawns additional insurgents in a city .
      I suspect the opposite is true, although I have not made careful enough observations to make this 100% sure. But it appeared that rogue expansion always happened when a lot of extra spawning occurred. Plus the rogue occupied cities always seem to retain their garrison until a 2nd spawning.
      Commander Zozo001 :thumbsup:
      humble player
    • Zozo001 wrote:

      KFGauss wrote:

      My hunch is that the process that decides whether insurgents will expand isn't tied to the process that creates/spawns additional insurgents in a city .
      I suspect the opposite is true, although I have not made careful enough observations to make this 100% sure. But it appeared that rogue expansion always happened when a lot of extra spawning occurred. Plus the rogue occupied cities always seem to retain their garrison until a 2nd spawning.
      Well . . .

      I'm in a BGUSA game right now where I'm letting approx 50 cities rebel each day. Right now I kill them as soon as I can after they spawn. If I leave them alone for a few hours, some of them go walk-about and capture a couple of provinces.

      What should our hypothesis be and how should we test whether it's true/false?

      The post was edited 1 time, last by KFGauss ().

    • KFGauss wrote:

      If I leave them alone for a few hours, some of them go walk-about and capture a couple of provinces.
      Interesting, I have not seen that behavior before (the few cases where I had rogues wandering about, it took many days after spawning). I wonder if it has to do with the high number of rebels afoot. Another question is whether this might be related to them starting at full HP, unlike before. As I recall, albeit vaguely, those wandering rebels went out at full HP.

      What I would like to see, first, is actually a measurement of time intervals (and their distribution) for rogues to leave their origin after spawning.

      An interesting hypothesis is about the HP dependence. This can be tested by partially depleting some rogue's strength, then observe if the leaving time is affected.
      Commander Zozo001 :thumbsup:
      humble player
    • OK - I'm going to put this on the back burner for a little while, but not forget it.

      I'll try to do the experiments in the period between when my ally and I both surpass 2500 Season Points and when we decide to close out the game by passing the VP threshold.

      I'm thinking that we'll both pass our SP thresholds in less than 10 real-world days.

      The first thing I need to do (today) is give that ally a heads-up about me wanting to screw around a little before we end the game.
    • An update from Today's game-day:

      The Insurgents spawned while I was sleeping (again).

      After 6 to 9 hours I'm guessing that roughly 1/3rd of them left their cities to attack surrounding provinces (and accidentally bump into 1 or 2 of my units).

      So . . .

      They don't appear to be waiting for reinforcements.

      More stayed put (during this first movement period) than moved. They appear to have (very rough guess) a 1 in 3 chance of leaving their starting city.

      They might be going on the move earlier than they did in the past because they are spawning at full health now. If they wait for full health before having a chance of leaving home, that wait time is now zero..
    • To try to discover if full HP Insurgents are more aggressive than weak (lower HP) Insurgents, here's what I'm doing:

      • I've pulled all of my Insurgent-farming troops (including radars) back into my various air bases, and I have my planes flying air-cover for them.
      • Plenty of Insurgents will spawn in this game-day in the 50-ish cities where I haven't suppressed rebellions.
      • I'll leave the new Insurgents alone and see how many venture out of their cities.


      Then . . . I'll kill all the insurgent and try the same thing again tomorrow on that day's crop of Insurgents,

      BUT . . .

      • Tomorrow (assuming the gods of randomness don't tell the insurgents to start moving before I can get to them) I'll send one plane to wound each freshly spawned Insurgent.
      • I'll then wait to see whether the wounded (less than 100% HP) Insurgents move out of their cities, and if they do start moving whether the fraction that start moving is similar to the fraction that moved when they had had full HP.


      Stay tuned.
    • I deleted the previous posts to get rid of an embarrassing counting mistake :whistling: and to replace unnecessary minutia with this summary.

      =================================================================================================================

      Day 54 at 08:42:
      • 38 out of 53 cities rebelled (my Morale penalties are purposefully high)
      Day 55 at 18:00
      • 34 of the 38 Insurgents spawned on Day 54 moved out of their cities to capture provinces
      Day 55 at 23:44
      • 7 new rebellions occurred, putting the number of Rogue State cities at 45 out of 53
      • An unknown number of 2nd Insurgents spawned in cities Rogue State already owned
      Day 56 at 01:07
      • 2 new rebellions occurred, putting the number of Rogue State cities at 47 out of 53
      • An unknown number of 2nd Insurgents spawned in cities Rogue State already owned - Radar shows that at least 16 cities that had an Insurgent leave earlier now have a 2nd Insurgent in them
      =================================================================================================================

      Next (as described above) I'm planning to kill the current crop of rebels, recapture the cities, let a fresh round of rebellions occur, wound all of those fresh Insurgents, and then see how many of those wounded rebels promptly leave their cities.

      =================================================================================================================

      Day 57
      • At the start of day 57 all 52 Cities have been recaptured from previous insurgencies.
      • At 03:56, 30 of 52 Cities rebel.
      • No Insurgents left their cities.
      • Between 16:44 and 17:54, to wound all of the fresh (25 HP) Insurgents, each of the 30 cities was attacked by a single EAA, NSF, or SF.
      Day 58
      • 13 new rebellions listed in my Alerts, if any cities already in rebellion received a 2nd Insurgent, I believe that it and the already-wounded original Insurgent would combine to still have less than full health.
      • Total is now 43 of 52 cities are in rebellion and are occupied by an Insurgent
      • None of the Insurgents have left their cities.
      • All 13 of the new Insurgents in newly rebelled cities are each being hit once by a single EAA
      Day 59
      • At 04:00, 48 hours after the thirty, Day 57 Insurgents were spawned (and were wounded by my attacks), none of those 30 Insurgents have left the cities where they were spawned.
      Day 60

      • At 02:0, 70 hours after the thirty, Day 57 Insurgents were spawned (and were wounded by my attacks), none of those 30 Insurgents have left the cities where they were spawned.
      =================================================================================================================

      The post was edited 9 times, last by KFGauss ().

    • CONCLUSIONS:

      Given the results above, I think it's safe to say that Insurgents do go on the prowl when their HP reaches 25.

      In the Day 54 experiment 34 of 38 full health Insurgents began wandering the day after they were spawned.

      In the Day 57 experiment 0 of 30 wounded Insurgents left their cities in the 48 hours after they were spawned.


      I also think that when the Insurgents wander each day is determined randomly, much like the time(s) when they are spawned.

      The two experiments don't ensure that this is true, but the Day 54 results and my experiences i my games are consistent with that being true.


      I'm satisfied.

      Does anyone have a question?

      The post was edited 2 times, last by KFGauss ().

    • Something I never paid attention to before is Rogue city morale increases over time. I just noticed that happening in a BGUSA game.

      So, while cities that revolted recently have low morale and tend to spawn one or two more insurgents, cities that revolted long ago and that now have Rogue State morale in the 40s and 50s aren't producing any more Insurgents.

      I think I can completely ignore those high morale (>33) cities, if I care to. I'm confident that they aren't going to suddenly send marauders out into the surrounding provinces.

      PS: Because this is based on observing 50 or so cities for a long time, I'm pretty confident that I'm right, but I might be wrong . . .